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Volume :25 Issue : 2 1997      Add To Cart                                                                    Download

Microeconomic convergence and prospects for monetary integration in the GCC: an Empirical Inquiry

Auther : Ali Diabi - Mohammed AL Jarrah

The paper attempts to inquire into the issue of macroeconomic convergence and prospects for monetary integration in GCC in light of more than one decade of economic cooperation. Convergence is defined in the paper as the narrowing of the paper is both analytical and empirical. Multivariate co integration and factor analysis are used to find statistical evidence for convergence. The empirical findings seem to suggest that, over all, some of the selected macroeconomic series do not drift too far apart from one another. It is however worth nothing that the level of macroeconomic convergence that has been achieved is not adequate, particularly in regard to internal fiscal and external imbalances and to a certain  inflation. These asymmetries, if not kept within bounds, might jeopardize the monetary union project. So, the GCC Members are urged to show willingness for further cooperation and consistent policy coordination to enhance economic convergence and thus create the conditions for a successful transition toward a monetary union .

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