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ABSTRACT

 Analyzing and modelling uncertainty have become a major focus of interest in construction engineering and management.  The various approaches considered in the past have included probabilistic methods and fuzzy set theory.  However, none of these methods incorporate human judgement in making decisions under uncertainty.  This paper presents an approach to analysing and modelling uncertainty based on a theory of human judgement, termed Social Judgement Theory (SJT).  SJT involves the development of a mathematical model of the judgement process of individuals.  SJT is readily understood and accepted by human judgement theorists and has been applied in a variety of disciplines that involve decision making.  The paper describes the basis of SJT and further utilizes it to model the decision making process of human project experts under uncertain situations.  Techniques used to improve human judgement through the use of cognitive feedback until an optimal model is developed are described.  The paper then demonstrates how SJT is applied to predict the expected quantity variance of construction projects under uncertainty based on the judgement of construction experts.

 Keywords:  Construction project control; quantity variance prediction; social judgement theory; uncertainty