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1Department of Mechanical Engineering, 2Department of Civil Engineering

College of Engineering and Petroleum, Kuwait University,

P.O. Box 5969 Safat 13060, Kuwait.

Email: sorour@kuniv.edu, Tel: 4897728, Fax: 4847131

ABSTRACT

In Kuwait, where the main source of fresh water is sea water desalination, the water supply is highly affected by the variable demand during the year. In this paper, a sinusoidal model to simulate and forecast total monthly fresh water consumption in Kuwait is presented. Total monthly fresh water consumption measurements obtained from the desalination plants for a period of time from 1992 to 2005 are employed to develop the model. The periodograms for fresh water consumption and climate temperature data sets are also determined. The results show a significant  12 -month periodicity in both data sets suggesting that the examined variable pattern of fresh water consumption may be related to that of climate temperature. The model can be used to examine the current plan for sea water desalination capacity in Kuwait and to provide forecasts.

Keywords: Kuwait; modeling; periodic behavior; water consumption.